[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel prices rose slightly on July 3, with the 13th round of China-EU High-Level Strategic Dialogue kicking off

SMM Nickel News on July 3:

Macro News:

(1) Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Minister of Foreign Affairs, held the 13th round of China-EU High-Level Strategic Dialogue with Josep Borrell, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, in Brussels. Wang Yi emphasized that China-EU relations should be positioned as partners rather than rivals, with cooperation as the main theme. Both sides should strengthen exchanges, deepen understanding, enhance mutual trust, and promote cooperation to jointly safeguard the post-war international order.

(2) US June Employment Data: ADP employment decreased by 33,000 in June, the largest decline since March 2023. The number of layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. in June was 47,999, the lowest since December 2024. Interest rate futures almost fully priced in a September interest rate cut by the US Fed.

Spot Market:

Today's SMM #1 refined nickel price is 121,200-123,900 yuan/mt, with an average price of 122,550 yuan/mt, up 500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premiums quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel is 2,200-2,400 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,300 yuan/mt, down 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premiums and discounts quotation range for electrodeposited nickel from domestic mainstream brands is -100-300 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2508) was strong in the night session but under pressure in the daytime session: It closed up 0.70% at 121,670 yuan/mt in the night session (LME nickel also rose 0.9% to $15,320/mt). It pulled back in the daytime session: It opened at 121,280 yuan/mt (up 460 yuan from the previous settlement), but fell under pressure in the afternoon, closing at 121,440 yuan/mt by the midday break, up 0.51% for the day.

Driven by the macro sentiment of "anti-cut-throat competition," nickel prices have rebounded recently. However, with downstream demand currently in the off-season, the long-term surplus pattern of nickel is difficult to reverse, and nickel prices will remain under pressure in the future.